A new survey released by President Donald Trump’s longtime polling team is now reportedly sending a blunt warning to Republicans: if current trends hold, the party could be headed for a rough 2026 midterm election.
The poll, conducted by FabrizioWard, found that the national generic congressional ballot currently favors Democrats by seven points. The results suggest Republicans are facing early headwinds less than two years before voters head to the polls.
FabrizioWard is led by Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward, with Fabrizio serving as Trump’s chief pollster during his successful presidential campaigns in 2016, 2020, and 2024. The survey, released December 18, was based on a sample of 1,000 registered voters nationwide.
While the topline numbers were sobering for Republicans, the firm’s internal memo made clear that the findings were not meant to signal inevitable defeat. Instead, the polling was tied to a broader analysis of voter attitudes toward federal standards aimed at protecting minors from the harms of artificial intelligence.
According to FabrizioWard, the issue represents a major opportunity for Republicans to regain lost ground. The memo urged GOP lawmakers to embrace a “protect kids” message by supporting national AI regulations designed to shield minors and empower parents, arguing that such a move could resonate strongly with voters.
“Republicans have a choice,” the firm wrote. “They can take advantage of a strong desire among the electorate for the federal government to protect kids and empower parents from AI harms and gain needed electoral support, or they can take the minority view arguing for state-by-state regulations.”
The firm warned that resisting national standards could expose Republicans to “significant electoral damage,” while taking action could dramatically shift the political landscape. FabrizioWard said the issue cuts across party lines and plays directly to parental concerns.
More than 80 percent of voters surveyed supported a national law requiring AI companies to take “reasonable steps” to reduce risks to minors. Those risks include cyberbullying, mental health issues, sexual exploitation, drug use, gambling, and self-harm.
The memo argued that embracing such policies could do more than simply close the gap with Democrats. “By supporting the policies discussed above to protect kids and empower parents, Republicans have an opportunity to lift their ballot support significantly,” the firm wrote, claiming the GOP could turn a seven-point deficit into a 13-point advantage, a net swing of 20 points.
Inside the Trump administration, there is little illusion that the midterms will be easy. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles acknowledged earlier this month that Republicans face an uphill climb and said Trump plans to campaign aggressively to boost turnout.
“Typically in the midterms it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House,” Wiles said. “You localize the election, and you keep the federal officials out of it.” She added that the administration intends to flip that approach, putting Trump front and center to energize voters who turn out primarily for him.
“We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters,” Wiles said.
That strategy dovetails with a broader rebranding underway within the conservative movement. At AmericaFest this past weekend, Donald Trump Jr. declared that the Republican Party “is no longer a thing,” arguing that the movement has evolved into the “America First Party” or the “Make America Great Again Party.” Vice President JD Vance echoed that language in his own remarks.
Taken together, the poll and the messaging signal a GOP at a crossroads: facing challenging numbers, but with clear pathways to rally voters if the party sharpens its focus and leans into issues that unite its base and appeal to families nationwide.
[READ MORE: Kelly Fires Back at Weiss and Shapiro, Accusing Fellow Conservatives of Public Betrayal]
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