Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is within striking distance of Governor Kathy Hochul, according to a new poll that signals potential vulnerability for the Democratic incumbent in one of the nation’s bluest states.
The survey, conducted November 9-10 by J.L. Partners, an independent research firm, found Hochul leading Stefanik by just 3 percentage points—46 percent to 43 percent—with 11 percent of voters undecided. The narrow margin suggests that Stefanik, the 41-year-old Republican congresswoman who has risen quickly through party ranks, could mount a formidable challenge if she secures the GOP nomination.
While Democrats have dominated statewide politics in New York for decades, the poll offers an early indication that frustration with Hochul’s leadership may be creating an opening for Republicans. The survey found that only 40 percent of likely voters strongly or somewhat approve of Hochul’s job performance, while 54 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove.
Stefanik’s numbers show room for growth, particularly as her public image continues to expand beyond her upstate district. Thirty-seven percent of respondents viewed her very or somewhat favorably, compared to 32 percent who viewed her unfavorably.
Hochul, who ascended to the governorship in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, has faced growing criticism over rising crime, high taxes, and the state’s sluggish economic recovery. Her approval numbers in this poll suggest she has yet to win over many disenchanted voters, even as she seeks to project stability and moderation.
For Stefanik, who has built a national profile as a strong conservative voice in Congress and a close ally of President Donald Trump, the survey offers an encouraging snapshot ahead of what could become a high-profile contest next year. The poll also found Stefanik dominating her prospective Republican primary rival, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, by a commanding 74 percent to 5 percent.
Blakeman, 70, is expected to announce his candidacy as soon as this week, according to a source familiar with the emerging GOP field. His entry could test Stefanik’s growing influence in New York Republican politics, though the poll’s findings indicate she remains the overwhelming favorite for the nomination.
Still, the race to unseat Hochul remains an uphill battle. Democrats hold a significant registration advantage in New York, and Hochul’s campaign is expected to benefit from the party’s extensive fundraising network and institutional support. Yet the 3-point gap underscores that many voters remain open to an alternative, reflecting broader unease with Democratic leadership both in Albany and Washington.
With 11 percent of voters undecided and a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, the survey’s results suggest volatility in the early stages of the race. For now, however, Stefanik’s strong early showing highlights how even in deep-blue New York, discontent over the economy, public safety, and governance could make 2026 a far more competitive election than Democrats anticipated.
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