Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is now reportedly leading Senator John Cornyn by 16 percentage points in the Republican primary for the 2026 Senate race, according to a recent poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF).
The poll shows Paxton with 56% support compared to Cornyn’s 40% in a two-way matchup.
In a hypothetical three-way race that includes Texas Representative Wesley Hunt, Paxton holds 44%, while Cornyn gets 34% and Hunt 19%.
The SLF, which backs Cornyn’s reelection campaign, has urged President Donald Trump to endorse Cornyn, but Trump has yet to make a decision on support for the primary.
Despite Cornyn’s strong voting record aligning with Trump, his campaign faces significant challenges from Paxton, who is gaining traction among Republican voters.
In potential matchups against former Democratic Representative Colin Allred, Cornyn leads by 6 points, while Hunt has a 4-point advantage.
Paxton, however, trails Allred by 1 point, indicating a tougher road ahead for him in the general election.
Cornyn’s campaign adviser, Matt Mackowiak, expressed confidence that as voters learn more about both candidates, Cornyn will regain support.
SLF’s Communications Director, Chris Gustafson, countered that Cornyn is in a stronger position than Paxton, suggesting that scrutiny of Paxton’s record could diminish his current lead.
Regardless of the GOP primary outcome, analysts expect the Texas Senate seat to remain Republican, with the Cook Political Report rating the race as “Solid R.”
However, some Democratic strategists believe a potential “blue wave” in 2026 could open opportunities for Democrats in Texas. The poll was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by the Tarrance Group.
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