Nate Silver Says Republicans ‘Still Have a Lot of Winning Combinations’ in Midterms

Democrats may be riding high heading into Tuesday’s midterms, but election forecaster Nate Silver says Republicans aren’t out of the fight yet.
Speaking Friday on Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast with editor-in-chief Ben Smith and media reporter Max Tani, Silver argued that the GOP still has several paths to keep Democrats from seizing control of Congress.

“Republicans still have a lot of winning combinations,” Silver said.

While some in the media are predicting a blue wave, Silver said Democrats have to climb some very red terrain to win the Senate. That challenge could cause them to fall short because of just a few key races.

Silver laid out what he called a “death by a thousand cuts” scenario. In it, Democrats flip the Texas Senate seat, where Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton. But they come up short elsewhere.

In that scenario, Democrats lose in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. They also lose in Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Silver added that a Democratic win in Texas would be the most shocking result of the night. He said that would be true even though Democrats are statistically favored there in both polls and prediction markets, because the state has been so reliably Republican.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need to net four seats to win control.

The latest polling has given Democrats plenty of reason for optimism. A new CNN survey shows Democratic candidates leading in both Michigan and Texas. The forecaster Inside Elections shifted 63 races in Democrats’ favor this week. Prediction market traders on Kalshi now give Talarico a 70% chance of winning in Texas.

Still, Silver has cautioned before that the polls could be wrong. On his own podcast, “Still Counting,” he said earlier that the Republicans’ best hope is that the polling data turns out to be inaccurate.

That has happened before. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In 2024, Trump’s final share of the vote landed about 3 points higher than pre-election surveys showed.

Silver has also warned that some of the very voters who joined Trump’s coalition in recent years may be growing frustrated with the president. That could weigh on Republicans in close races.

The Michigan race has been especially heated in the campaign’s final stretch. Trump has repeatedly attacked El-Sayed, and the Democrat has fired back. A recent Marist poll showed El-Sayed leading Rogers by just two points.

In Maine, Collins has survived tough challenges before, including in 2020, when polls showed her trailing and she went on to win comfortably.
Silver is known for his election forecasting. He correctly called the popular vote within one percentage point in 2008.
Voters head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3.