Fox News Shifts Texas Senate Race to Toss-Up as Talarico, Paxton Battle Tightens

Fox News has now reportedly updated its 2026 midterm "Power Rankings," moving the closely watched Texas Senate contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton from Likely R to Toss-Up.

Talarico and Paxton will face each other in November as Democrats attempt to win a major statewide Texas race for the first time since the late 1990s.

Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter primary battle that burned through campaign cash and brought renewed attention to scandals, lawsuits, his contentious divorce from his state senator wife and other controversies that have followed him for years.

Paxton received President Donald Trump's endorsement during the primary but has been viewed as a potentially weaker general-election candidate amid those controversies and poor polling for Trump and Republicans on issues including immigration and the economy.

Earlier this month, election forecaster Nate Silver rated the Texas contest "Lean D," identifying it as one of his leading possibilities for a Democratic pickup.
Fox News isn't going that far, but its decision to move the race from Likely R to Toss-Up represents a significant shift.

Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa wrote that Talarico has "enjoyed some robust polling results this summer."

According to Numa, Talarico is averaging 48% across three recent polls compared with Paxton's 46%. Talarico reached 51% in Fox's own survey.

Numa also pointed to the national political environment, writing that Trump's approval ratings have remained in the 30s and have frequently fallen even lower when voters are asked about the economy and the Iran war.

Gas prices have been particularly difficult for Trump, according to the Fox analysis, with just 21% of Americans recently saying they approved of his performance specifically on that issue.

Numa described 2026 as "an election year that's already favorable to Democrats." While Talarico must contend with his history of "woke" comments, Numa wrote that voters appear less concerned about those remarks than they are about Paxton's legal and personal controversies.

Fox News also moved the Texas governor's race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa from Solid R to Likely R.
Abbott continues to lead, but Numa described that contest as "clearly competitive," while suggesting Paxton may be hurting the Republican ticket. Abbott, however, can rely on his fundraising strength and the GOP's historical dominance in Texas.

Elsewhere, Fox moved Michigan's Senate race from Lean D to Toss-Up following progressive Abdul El-Sayed's Democratic primary victory. Minnesota's gubernatorial race shifted from Solid D to Likely D, while the Kansas Senate and Alaska governor races moved leftward.

With six Senate races now rated without an advantage for either party, Fox's forecast leaves open dramatically different outcomes.

One scenario has Democrats capturing the Senate and reaching 53 seats. Another has Republicans maintaining control without suffering any net loss of seats.