Esper Predicts Iran Will Push Hard in Talks Before Midterms as Trump Weighs Next Move

Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday night that Iran is likely to press for as many concessions as possible during peace negotiations with the United States before the upcoming midterm elections, arguing that Tehran sees the current political climate as its strongest opportunity to negotiate with President Donald Trump.
Appearing on NewsNation’s “The Hill,” Esper suggested Iran believes Trump’s position will change after the elections, when political considerations tied to the campaign season will no longer carry the same weight.
“His hand will become freer after the election for sure, and the Iranians know that,” Esper said. “So this is the Iranians’ time of maximum negotiation — get what they can now, because after Nov. 4, when [Trump] … doesn’t have to worry about the politics and economics, he can really unleash the United States military once again after Iran.”
Esper’s remarks come as tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated despite a memorandum of understanding signed in June that was intended to halt the conflict. The agreement established a ceasefire between the two countries and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
However, the memorandum left unresolved one of the central issues in the dispute: the future of Iran’s nuclear material. According to the agreement, that matter was to be addressed during subsequent negotiations.
Recent military developments have cast doubt on whether those talks will move forward.
The agreement now appears to be hanging by a thread after the United States carried out strikes against roughly 90 targets inside Iran on Wednesday evening. Those operations followed another series of U.S. strikes Tuesday night that lasted for several hours.
According to the Trump administration, the American response came after Iran targeted three commercial vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days.
Iran subsequently responded by launching drones and missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host U.S. military personnel and assets.
President Trump reacted angrily to the latest Iranian attacks and declared Wednesday that he considers the memorandum of understanding finished.
“I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum,” Trump said during the NATO summit, adding that continuing negotiations with Iran’s representatives was a waste of time.
Despite Trump’s comments, Esper said he does not believe the agreement has completely collapsed, arguing that neither Washington nor Tehran has an interest in returning to a full-scale conflict.
According to Esper, Trump has practical reasons for avoiding an all-out war at this stage.
“President Trump, of course, certainly does not want to return to all-out war because he does not want to see oil prices rise, and that means gas prices go up as well. And that’s not good for the midterm elections,” he said.
Esper, who served as defense secretary during Trump’s first administration, predicted that the current back-and-forth military exchanges are likely to continue for the foreseeable future rather than ending quickly.
“It settles down, diplomacy takes back over, some ships pass through [the strait], it flares up again when they take shots at them, and we go through this cycle over and over and over again,” Esper said, describing what he expects to be a recurring pattern of military confrontations followed by renewed diplomatic efforts.