Election Forecaster Projects Democrats Flipping Texas, Alaska and Maine as GOP Fights to Hold the Senate

Democrats are entering the final hours of the 2026 midterm campaign with momentum in the battle for the Senate, according to the latest forecast from Decision Desk HQ, though Republicans in several key races remain within striking distance.

The forecast, updated Monday, projects Democrats flipping seats in Texas, Alaska and Maine. It gives Democratic state Rep. James Talarico a 61 percent chance of defeating Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, and former Rep. Mary Peltola the same 61 percent chance of unseating GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska. In Maine, former state Senate President Troy Jackson is given a 63 percent chance of ousting longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Overall, the model gives Democrats a 64 percent chance of winning control of the upper chamber, compared with 36 percent for Republicans, and projects a final 52-48 split. Democrats need to flip four seats to take the majority. The forecast also shows Democrats ahead in North Carolina and Ohio.

But the numbers come with a major caveat. Many of the marquee contests are still polling within the margin of error, meaning they are effectively tied heading into Election Day on Tuesday.

Six races are rated as toss-ups in the DDHQ model: Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. Kansas has been the most recent mover, shifting toward Democrats last week, with the forecast giving Republican Sen. Roger Marshall only a 53 percent chance of holding his seat.

Democrats have also pointed to new polling from The New York Times and Siena released over the weekend, which showed the party edging Republicans in seven competitive Senate races. However, only two Democrats, Talarico in Texas and Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, were polling outside the full margin of error.

Strategists in both parties expect those contests to tighten as the final ballots are cast.

The Lone Star State has drawn particular attention. Early voting data shows Democrats running far closer to Republicans than they did in 2024, but analysts caution that early returns are not a reliable predictor of the final outcome, and Paxton could still prevail in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in decades.

In Maine, Democrats have increased their share of early and absentee voters by about five points compared with 2024, yet Collins, a veteran campaigner who has repeatedly defied predictions of her defeat, remains locked in a highly competitive race.

Alaska has become one of the most turbulent races in the country. Peltola, who lost the state’s at-large House seat in 2024, has campaigned on a “fish, family, freedom” message while Sullivan has highlighted his alignment with President Trump. Her campaign is now facing federal, state and congressional scrutiny over allegations that her staff helped recruit a spoiler candidate sharing Sullivan’s name, which Peltola denies.

Republicans, for their part, argue that polls have underestimated GOP candidates in recent cycles and that the final result will be far closer than forecasts suggest.

Control of the Senate will be decided Tuesday, with polls closing in the critical battleground states throughout the evening.