Crockett Doubts Democrat’s Chances in Texas Senate Race Despite Favorable Polls

Outgoing Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, expressed skepticism that Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico can defeat Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, even as recent polling has shown the Democrat holding a narrow advantage in the race.

According to NBC News political reporter Sahil Kapur, Crockett said she “doesn’t buy” the recent polls and responded, “I don’t know,” when asked whether she believes Talarico can ultimately prevail against Paxton in the general election.

Crockett suggested that the current political landscape in Texas remains largely unchanged and argued that campaign spending by national parties will provide a clearer indication of how competitive the race truly is.

Speaking Tuesday night, Crockett said she is watching where national Republican and Democratic organizations choose to invest their resources before drawing conclusions about the contest.

“When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced,” Crockett said. “But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia. That’s where they’re fighting, and national Democrats have not decided to dump money into Texas either.”

She added that she is paying close attention to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“I look at: where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand?” Crockett said. “Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing. So it looks like status quo.”

The Texas congresswoman also said she expects to have a better sense of the race later in the campaign season.

“I won’t get on the ground to really start to feel it until maybe end of September, October, as I start to dig into which races I’m going to help out in, the races that I really feel like we can win,” she said.

Crockett’s comments come several months after Talarico defeated her in the Democratic primary. They also arrive as multiple recent surveys have shown the Democrat holding slim leads over Paxton.
A Texas Southern University poll released Tuesday found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%. That followed a Fox News poll showing Talarico ahead 51% to 48%, while a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found him leading 45% to 40%.

Despite those numbers, Republican officials reportedly remain confident that additional campaign spending could shift the race.

According to Axios, many GOP strategists believe that while Paxton has faced a series of controversies, those issues can be overcome with a well-funded advertising campaign. The reported strategy is to increase negative messaging against Talarico through extensive ad buys while waiting for Republican voters to rally behind Paxton.

However, Axios reported that significant outside financial support for Paxton has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile, Talarico’s campaign has continued airing advertisements labeling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America.”

Fundraising has also become a point of contrast in the race. Paxton raised $9 million during the last fundraising quarter, but many major donors who previously backed Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary have reportedly not contributed to Paxton’s campaign.

Talarico, by comparison, raised $30 million as he seeks to become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide election in Texas.
Separately, The Texas Tribune and ProPublica published reports Wednesday stating that Talarico “may have violated state voting laws” by casting ballots in five elections using his parents’ address rather than the residence where he allegedly lives. The reports come after Talarico accused Paxton of committing voter fraud based on similar alleged violations.