Democratic New York Governor Kathy Hochul, long considered a safe frontrunner, faces mounting vulnerability in the race for re-election, according to a new GrayHouse poll.
The survey, conducted on behalf of Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s Leadership PAC, shows Hochul’s lead evaporating once voters are presented with the records of both candidates.
Initially, the poll of 1,250 likely 2026 midterm voters in New York showed Hochul leading Stefanik 48 percent to 43 percent. But after respondents reviewed key elements of each candidate’s record—including Hochul’s endorsement of socialist New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, her bail reform policies, and perceived cost-of-living failures—the governor’s advantage all but disappeared. Stefanik took a narrow lead, 46.4 percent to Hochul’s 45.9 percent.
“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said in a statement. She criticized Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani, calling him a “communist antisemite” and accusing the governor of bending to progressive forces to shore up her base.
Stefanik also highlighted the broader economic consequences of Hochul’s tenure. “Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills,” Stefanik said. “Kathy Hochul’s single-party Democrat rule affordability crisis, coupled with the crime crisis from failed bail reform, combined with the sanctuary state policies costing, putting criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last, is a political disaster for Hochul.”
Poll data further underscores the governor’s precarious standing. Only 10 percent of respondents strongly approve of Hochul’s job performance, compared with 44 percent who strongly disapprove.
Among independents, Hochul has a 64 percent unfavorable rating and only 31 percent favorable. Stefanik, by contrast, holds a more balanced view among independents, with 37 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable.
Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani, in a September op-ed for The New York Times, appears to have amplified voter concerns. “I heard a leader who shares my commitment to a New York where children can grow up safe in their neighborhoods and where opportunity is within reach for every family,” Hochul wrote. She acknowledged disagreements with Mamdani but praised his “courage, urgency and optimism.”
The GrayHouse poll indicates that progressive candidates like Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are influencing broader voter attitudes, particularly among independents.
Forty-seven percent of independents surveyed said they would be less likely to vote for Democrats in 2026 if Mamdani wins.
“This poll is devastating for the worst governor in America,” said Alex deGrasse, Executive Director of Team Elise. “Kathy Hochul’s dismal record of failure and bending the knee to Commie Mamdani is causing her already weak support to crater across New York. Voters want change and a governor who will fight for them, which is why they will resoundingly reject Kathy Hochul for new leadership in Elise Stefanik if she decides to run for governor.”
The poll follows a Siena survey from September showing Hochul with 52 percent support and Stefanik at 27 percent, prior to the governor’s endorsement of Mamdani. The new data suggests the Democratic incumbent faces a far more competitive race than previously assumed.
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