A majority on Brazil’s Supreme Court reportedly ruled Thursday that former President Jair Bolsonaro is guilty of plotting a coup to overturn the 2022 election, a decision that could put the 70-year-old leader in prison for decades and further inflame tensions with the United States.
The case has electrified Latin America’s largest democracy and placed Brazil squarely at the center of President Donald J. Trump’s intensifying trade war.
Calling the prosecution a “political execution,” Mr. Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian exports last month and warned of more sanctions to come.
“Unless the U.S. changes its bilateral policy toward Brazil, the trend is really toward a conflict without resolution,” said Rafael Cortez, a political scientist at São Paulo-based Tendências.
Justice Cármen Lúcia cast the decisive third vote against Mr. Bolsonaro, virtually ensuring his conviction on a five-judge panel. Justice Cristiano Zanin — formerly President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s personal attorney — had already signaled his belief in Mr. Bolsonaro’s guilt. Analysts expect the fifth and final judge to follow suit.
Mr. Bolsonaro is scheduled to be sentenced Friday and could be imprisoned within days. Because of his age and fragile health after a near-fatal stabbing in 2018, a life sentence could mean he never leaves custody.
Still, a growing movement is calling for amnesty for him and others linked to the Jan. 8, 2023, storming of Brazil’s Congress.
For Mr. Bolsonaro’s critics, the verdict is heralded as a victory for democracy. But for his supporters, it confirms their fears that Brazil’s courts — stacked with allies of the leftist government — have become arbiters of political power. “This is nothing more than a witch hunt designed to keep him out of office,” one ally said.
The court accused Mr. Bolsonaro of spreading false claims of voter fraud, conspiring with military and police allies, and even knowing of a plan dubbed “Green and Yellow Dagger” that contemplated assassinating Mr. da Silva, his vice president, and a Supreme Court justice.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s lawyers insist no such evidence exists and stress that he oversaw a peaceful transfer of power in 2022.
Public opinion remains deeply divided. A Datafolha poll showed 51 percent of Brazilians supported his house arrest while 42 percent opposed it. Another poll found nearly half the public favored impeaching Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the judge leading the case.
Tens of thousands protested on Brazil’s Independence Day, waving American flags alongside Brazilian ones and calling on Mr. Trump to intervene.
The U.S. has already revoked visas for Justice de Moraes, his judicial allies, and their families, in addition to the sweeping tariffs.
The legal battle has also created friction inside the Bolsonaro family. His son Eduardo, who moved to the United States earlier this year to lobby the White House, supported sanctions on judges but balked at the breadth of tariffs.
After Mr. Bolsonaro publicly criticized him, Eduardo snapped in a WhatsApp message: “Go screw yourself, you damn ingrate!” police records show.
Mr. Bolsonaro is now the fourth Brazilian president to be jailed or detained in less than a decade. His fate, once tied to the ballot box, now rests with a court system his supporters say has substituted its judgments for those of voters.
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