Gov. Kathy Hochul’s once-comfortable lead in the New York gubernatorial race is now reportedly narrowing sharply, as Rep. Elise Stefanik gains traction with voters outside the Democratic stronghold of New York City.
A new Siena poll shows Hochul, a Democrat, ahead of Stefanik by 14 points — a notable drop from the 23-point advantage she enjoyed in June.
While Hochul’s overall job approval remains at 53 percent, 42 percent of voters now disapprove, with the remaining 5 percent undecided. The survey points to a key trend: independents, who favored Hochul just two months ago, are now leaning toward Stefanik.
“More than two-thirds of Democrats are with Hochul and three-quarters of Republicans are with Stefanik,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a Tuesday release. “Independents are closely divided, leaning toward Stefanik, after favoring Hochul in June.”
Geographic shifts also tell the story. New York City voters remain firmly in Hochul’s camp, but downstate suburban voters have swung from backing the governor by 11 points to narrowly preferring Stefanik.
Upstate, where Hochul once held a 12-point lead, the contest is now effectively tied.
Stefanik, the House Republican Conference Chair, has made her mark nationally as an outspoken critic of illegal immigration and a staunch advocate for deporting those without permanent legal status.
That message appears to be resonating as New Yorkers face the consequences of sanctuary city policies and a strained social safety net.
Still, the poll highlights a challenge for the congresswoman: 41 percent of respondents say they don’t know who she is. Among those familiar with her, 32 percent view her unfavorably while 27 percent see her positively.
“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively,” Greenberg noted, adding that Republicans overwhelmingly believe she has the right experience to lead the state, while Democrats disagree and independents are divided.
The numbers also suggest a broader dissatisfaction with the political status quo. More than half of voters — 58 percent — hold an unfavorable view of Republicans in Congress, compared with 49 percent who say the same about Democrats.
That gap, however, offers little comfort for Hochul, whose re-election support stands at just 35 percent.
For Stefanik’s campaign, the momentum is clear. “The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50 percent on the ballot, and only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership,” said Alex DeGrasse, executive director of Team Elise.
DeGrasse emphasized that Stefanik would deliver “the largest middle class tax cut in New York history,” repeal “failed bail reform and dangerous sanctuary cities policies,” and cut taxes for working families — policies that stand in stark contrast to Hochul’s record.
With independents shifting right and suburban discontent mounting, the race for Albany may prove far closer than Democrats anticipated.
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