Senate Majority Leader John Thune is reportedly sounding the alarm over the high-stakes Republican primary in Texas, cautioning that the GOP could put a reliably red Senate seat in jeopardy if state Attorney General Ken Paxton secures the nomination.
Thune has thrown his support behind incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002. Cornyn is facing a competitive March 3 primary against Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the contest will move to a May runoff between the top two finishers.
Recent polling shows Paxton and Cornyn leading the field, but neither has crossed the 50 percent threshold. Most surveys indicate Paxton holding a plurality, setting up the possibility of a bruising runoff battle.
The stakes are high for Republicans, who currently control the Senate 53-47. Thune made clear he is concerned about how a Paxton nomination could play out in a general election.
“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate,” Thune told Politico.
That warning reflects broader unease among national Republicans, who have reportedly spent months and significant resources attempting to bolster Cornyn’s standing in the primary. Politico reported that Republicans have already spent $100 million to support Cornyn and are worried they may have to spend even more if Paxton becomes the nominee.
The concerns stem in part from Paxton’s recent political history. In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to impeach him on accusations of bribery, dereliction of duty, and obstruction of justice. Paxton was accused of using his office to assist Nate Paul, a Texas real estate developer and major political donor. According to the allegations, Paul employed Paxton’s mistress to keep her quiet in exchange for access to state records regarding investigations into his business.
Despite those accusations and the impeachment vote, Paxton remains a formidable contender in the GOP primary, with polling suggesting strong grassroots support. Politico described a scenario in which Cornyn could face “an expensive and nasty 10-week runoff” against Paxton, with a “strong chance” that Paxton ultimately wins the nomination.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are competing for their party’s nomination. A poll conducted this month shows Crockett leading Talarico by 12 percentage points.
For Thune and other Senate Republicans, the primary fight in Texas represents more than an intraparty contest. With control of the Senate at stake and Democrats eager for pickup opportunities, party leaders appear wary of nominating a candidate who could face heightened scrutiny in a general election.
Texas has long been considered a Republican stronghold, but Thune’s comments suggest that party leadership is taking nothing for granted. As the primary approaches and the possibility of a runoff looms, the outcome could shape not only the future of one Senate seat but also the broader battle for control of the upper chamber.
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