Violent crime fell dramatically in 2025, with experts predicting the year could mark the sharpest decline in homicides in recorded history.
The stunning drop, detailed in two recent reports examining crime trends in major U.S. cities, continues a downward trajectory that began in 2022. That reversal followed the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw a record-breaking spike in homicides in 2020 and 2021.
“This is the fourth year in a row of declines, and each year has gotten a little bigger than the year before,” said John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, in a Monday interview. Referring to the FBI’s eight major crime categories, Roman noted that nearly all have fallen sharply.
“And this is the first time that we’ve seen it in all of the categories,” he said. “I think seven of the eight categories fell by close to a record amount. So this is a unique and historic decline in crime and violence in the U.S.”
While the FBI has not yet released its official crime statistics for 2025, early data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association and the Council on Criminal Justice suggest the federal numbers will reflect similar trends.
The Major Cities Chiefs Association survey, which includes data from 67 of 68 responding agencies, shows that from 2024 to 2025 homicides dropped 19.3 percent. Rape declined 8.8 percent, robbery fell 19.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased 9.7 percent.
The Council on Criminal Justice report, which analyzed data from 40 large cities, found homicides down 21 percent over the same period. Robbery decreased by 23 percent and aggravated assault by 9 percent. The council groups rape and other sexual assaults together in a single category, which showed no significant change in 2025.
The dramatic improvement has sparked debate over what is driving the nationwide trend. Members of the Trump administration frequently point to President Trump’s aggressive approach to crime and immigration, as well as his tough rhetoric, as contributing factors.
FBI Director Kash Patel responded last month to coverage of the 2025 Council on Criminal Justice report by crediting the administration and the bureau’s work.
“Nearly 200% more arrests. Violent gangs crushed. Fugitives hunted down,” Patel wrote on X. “Media gymnastics can’t hide the reality that this administration brought law and order back, and Americans are safer because of it.”
Some experts, however, argue that the primary explanation is the unprecedented crime spike during the pandemic years.
“The No. 1 reason why crime is falling now is because it was sort of artificially high because of COVID,” Roman said, noting the pandemic created conditions that led to increased violence.
Roman also suggested that funding distributed to states and local governments through the American Rescue Plan Act helped communities rebound from pandemic disruptions. The legislation, signed by President Biden in 2021, included $350 billion for state and local governments. Roman said those funds may have supported teacher roles, counselors and additional police officers.
Still, he emphasized that the crime drop is national in scope and likely tied to something universal. He noted that nearly all of the 25 largest cities in the country experienced significant declines, and ARPA funding was broadly distributed.
“Everybody got the money,” Roman said, calling it the only recent explanation that applied everywhere.
Other experts have pointed to investments in community violence intervention programs, though evidence on their effectiveness remains mixed.
Emily Owens, a criminology and economics professor at the University of California, Irvine, said the consistency of the decline across cities suggests broader social forces at work following pandemic disruptions.
The White House, however, pushed back on claims that ARPA funding played a meaningful role.
“This is a claim so absurd that it would make even the most partisan Democrat flak blush,” said White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson. “Joe Biden’s soft-on-crime policies made communities less safe.”
As the data continues to roll in, one point is clear: after years of elevated violence, America is experiencing a historic drop in crime — and the debate over why is just getting started.
About Post Author
