Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds a slim lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, according to a Rutgers University–Eagleton poll released Thursday.
The race, which has tightened in recent weeks, now appears to hinge on voter enthusiasm — and on the enduring influence of President Donald Trump, whose endorsement has energized Republican voters in the traditionally blue state.
The survey found that 50 percent of likely voters would back Sherrill if the election were held today, compared with 45 percent for Ciattarelli. Three percent said they would vote for another candidate or none at all, and 2 percent remained undecided.
With a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, the race remains within striking distance for the Republican challenger.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 3 to 17 among 795 likely voters, underscores how competitive the contest has become as Election Day approaches.
While Democrats continue to hold a registration advantage in New Jersey, Ciattarelli’s campaign has been buoyed by growing dissatisfaction with Washington Democrats and by Trump’s vocal support.
According to the poll, 52 percent of voters said President Trump is a “major factor” in their decision-making, highlighting the degree to which national politics has shaped the state race. Fourteen percent said he is a “minor factor,” while 34 percent said he is not a factor at all. Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli and repeatedly praised him at rallies and online while sharply criticizing Sherrill.
Voters appear almost evenly split on who they believe will ultimately win. Forty-three percent said they expect Sherrill to prevail, while 42 percent predicted a Ciattarelli victory. Fifteen percent said they were unsure. The numbers suggest that momentum could shift in the final stretch as undecided and independent voters make up their minds.
Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Sherrill with a narrower advantage of 48.6 percent to Ciattarelli’s 44.6 percent. The trajectory of recent polls indicates the race is tightening as Ciattarelli appeals to moderates and suburban voters disillusioned with Democratic policies on taxes, crime, and the economy.
For Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and rising figure within her party, maintaining her lead may depend on mobilizing Democratic turnout in key urban and suburban areas.
But Ciattarelli, who previously served in the state assembly and has emphasized fiscal responsibility and parental rights, has gained traction by positioning himself as a pragmatic alternative to one-party rule in Trenton.
Trump’s involvement has injected fresh energy into the Republican base, signaling that national conservative enthusiasm could play a decisive role even in states long considered safe for Democrats.
While Sherrill remains favored on paper, the poll’s findings suggest a far more competitive landscape than expected in deep-blue New Jersey — and one that could preview broader voter unrest heading into next year’s national contests.
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