Vance Weighs Whether 2028 Is His Time After GOP Midterm Drubbing, Allies Say

Vice President JD Vance has given serious thought to sitting out the 2028 presidential race after Republicans’ sweeping losses in last week’s midterm elections, people close to him told CNN.

Vance has not made a decision and has not set a timeline for one, and a White House bid remains firmly on the table. Some allies insist it is still more likely than not that he runs. But interviews with roughly a dozen allies and advisers describe a vice president wrestling with his political ambitions, a fracturing MAGA coalition and the demands of fatherhood.

“I wouldn’t be surprised by any decision he makes,” one person close to Vance told CNN. “He’s only 42. He’s young enough that he can have a comeback should this environment make success impossible. It just may not be his time.”

Allies described Vance as deeply committed to rebuilding the coalition that won in 2024, but uncertain over whether he should be the one to lead it.
Looming over those calculations is the war with Iran, which allies see as perhaps the biggest obstacle to Vance’s ambitions. One Vance ally framed the question this way: “If the Iran war is still happening, can any Republican do it?”

Vance publicly tied the party’s losses to the war in a lengthy post on X the morning after the election, writing, “The reason we lost is the war.” The post reportedly irritated President Trump, who was privately upset that Vance did not publicly defend the war, two people told CNN.

The post also drew fire from within the GOP. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said on CNN that Vance “did himself any favors” by sending it out, adding, “This loss was not because of Iran.”

Democrats retook both the House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 elections. The scale of the defeat has prompted some Vance allies to question whether any Republican can win the White House in two years, The Wall Street Journal reported. Two sources close to the vice president even pitched him on running for his old Ohio Senate seat after Democrat Sherrod Brown won it, according to the Journal. Vance rejected that idea.

Some of Vance’s fiercest allies insist he is not fazed, noting that two years is a long time in politics and that political fortunes can swing back his way. They point to his close relationships with wealthy backers, including Elon Musk and former PayPal CEO Peter Thiel.

Still, it is not clear whether major Trump-aligned outside groups such as MAGA Inc. and Musk’s America PAC, both heavy midterm spenders with few wins to show for it, will remain engaged on his behalf. Vance’s allies have argued it was the national environment, not those groups’ tactics, that drove the dismal results.

Before the midterms, Vance repeatedly said he would sit down with Trump to discuss 2028 only after the election. Trump has praised him as “most likely” his political heir, while also floating Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a contender.